“2019 may be the year in which Brexit gets decided one way or another, when work on Crossrail is completed and Kit Malthouse celebrates a full year as Minister for Housing.
Dataloft MD, Sandra Jones, gave her forecast for 2019 to Property Solvers.
Or it may not – because, as 2018 has shown, predictions are dangerously unreliable.
There seems to be a broad consensus about what will happen to house prices and transaction volumes next year – very little and very low.
But it will vary from place to place depending on local circumstances and there are a surprising number of trends that could influence local conditions, despite the lacklustre outlook overall. Here are ten to watch – factors that will drive outperformance in some areas in 2019.
Pro-active local public landowners. The government has set ambitious housebuilding targets, private sector housing delivery is slowing and public sector bodies need new sources of revenue after years of austerity. Look out for areas with pro-active public sector bodies working with the private sector to unlock opportunities.
Infrastructure. New transport connections are well-known to boost house prices. London has a new Cycling and Walking Commissioner, Will Norman, and following mixed reactions to cycle super-highways, they are renamed as the more user-friendly ‘Cycleways’. Worth checking out the routes.
Personal transport. E-scooters are set to be a popular Christmas present this year. Regulation around pavement/road sharing is not resolved but they offer a low cost and rapid way to get around the city and will influence perceptions of distance and accessibility from home to work or leisure activities.
Build to Rent. The purpose-built rental sector continues to gain momentum in a wider market. Rather than focussing exclusively on well-paid young professionals in London, investors are now looking at the mainstream and family markets in core cities and beyond. It will compete with existing PRS by offering a branded and highly professionalised management service and is there to pick up the slack if small investors lose heart.
Working from home. It’s hardly a new concept but homeworking is finally becoming an established and accepted part of the normal working week – but it’s most likely to be a mix of workplace, home and other spaces. Developments with facilities for homeworkers will appeal to agile workers. Alternatively look for mature coffee shop culture or provision of co-worker space around stations and on high streets.
Cities with brains. The concept of a ‘city brain’ with a web of sensors gathering data and feeding into a vast analytical infrastructure is becoming operational as technology catches up with the smart city vision. Alibaba has projects in several Chinese cities and Google has an experimental in Toronto. The UK identified AI and data as one of four ‘Grand Challenges’ in the Industrial Strategy. Keep an eye on cities at the forefront of the city brain evolution in the UK.
Living on the high street. Permitted Development Rights – the automatic right to convert office space to residential – created tens of thousands of new homes and now retail space is up for grabs too. Given the parlous state of the retail market, this seems likely to spawn a new generation of homes on the high street.
Connectivity. Broadband has become a key decision criteria for home-buyers and renters. As one of our blogs recently put it: To those who use it for work, connectivity is not a consumer choice, but a factor of production. Worth reviewing the providers to see where they plan to improve connectivity speed or coverage next.
Online or high street agents. Fewer people are now forecasting the demise of the traditional high street agent but consolidation still looks to be on the cards. Another tough year with low transaction volumes will create a competitive marketplace and put the spotlight on costs and service levels. We are likely to see some losses, some mergers and the most professional rising above the rest – adopting tech…
PropTech. Like all tech sectors, PropTech has its success stories and its failures but there is no doubt that tech which helps the industry to deliver a better service at a lower cost will gain traction. More efficient property management, facilitating community engagement, matching demand with supply and market intelligence will all benefit users and providers. Savvy budgets will focus on business solutions rather than flashy technology. Platform and integrations will bring together the strongest offers.
And in case that wasn’t a long enough list, I took a look at the results from a futures scanning bot. It threw up two big trends for 2019 that I hadn’t considered: Human Augmentation and Transhumanism. Food for thought?